virus: Re: Randomness of Markets

Duane Daniel Hewitt (
Tue, 4 Jul 1995 14:52:01 -0600

On Tue, 4 Jul 1995, David McFadzean wrote:

> Actually there was a recent article in Sci.Am. about a coupel luminaries
> at the Santa Fe Institute that formed a new company (Prediction Inc. or
> something like that) that will try to make money on the market with
> short term predictions using non-linear dynamical models.

Interesting, I will have to check it out. This is the article that you
mentioned or is there another one.

I realized one mistake in my analysis. Over the long term, weather
patterns show some predictability as well (eg. the seasons). Over the
short term the market may also react predicitably to a certain event (Oil
prices when Iraq invaded Kuwait).

> >Here we are running into a fundamental premise of mine. That reality is
> >just. Opportunities may occur by chance or luck but the skill and effort
> What do you mean that reality is just? Surely not in the traditional sense.

I mean, and this is a hard concept for me to explain, that the randomness
of reality does not render it futile to strive for excellence. That
capriciousness does not cancel out honest effort. I would have to
fall back on Pancritical Rationalism in that if you don't
accept this you are not in the same game. That is if I understand PCR