virus: Randomness of Markets

Duane Daniel Hewitt (
Tue, 4 Jul 1995 14:48:29 -0600

[Duane suggested I move this conversation to the virus list so that
others may comment. -- dbm]

I think my reaction was a bit of a knee jerk negative to what you said
about the Scientific American article about the unpredictibility of markets.
I have not read the article but I am going to do so.

What bothered me was that people can always say that something is
impossible if it is not currently able to be done. (eg. airplanes)
Therefore I am skeptical of arguments that operate in this manner.

I do not think that people like Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton and
Peter Lynch are just lucky. If it was luck then how many billionaire
gamblers are there in the world? (whose fortune is based solely on
gambling be it horse racing, poker or blackjack). I don't think that a
pattern of success over decades can be dismissed as being lucky. I would
like to compare the track record of the authors to the aforementioned

This is all I will venture before I read the article so that I don't take
the chance of making too many misstatements.