Re: virus: Re: virus-digest V2 #295

Sodom (
Mon, 10 Nov 1997 18:14:55 -0500

Paul Prestopnik wrote:

> > Everything else falls into the more likely - less likely scenario.
> >
> > More Likely
> >
> > Mathematics is accurate
> > All complex things evolve from less complex things
> > The Sun will rise tomorrow
> > Bill Clinton is a womanizer
> > etc..
> > etc..
> > Jesus healed people with a touch
> > The tooth fairy collected my old teeth as a child
> > The Earth is flat
> > A God created man and earth and the stars
> >
> > Less likely
> >
> > What do you think of this system for deciding rationality of a
> > viewpoint?
> You're scale does not reflect the difference between something which
> has no
> evidence, and something which has evidence against it.
> I would suggest a triangle structure. The bottom left corner
> represents
> definitely true statements, and the bottom right corner represents
> definitely false statements. (Maybe nothing will be in these absolute
> locations, just varying degrees between). The higher up the triangle,
> the
> less evidence is available to make a decision. As you reach closer
> and
> closer to having no evidence, a belief can not be as far to the right
> or
> left as it could have been if more evidence existed. An example. The
> earth is flat, is very likely to be a false statement, based upon
> perceived
> evidence (shadow on moon, change in horizon from height, pictures from
> the
> moon), and therefore would lie close to the bottom of the triangle,
> and
> close to the right side; very near the bottom right corner. A
> statement
> like "God created man and the earth and the stars" has no evidence for
> or
> against, and would be higher towards the top of the triangle. If you
> define God to be a completely imperceivable entity, than a statement
> about
> his existence would have to be at the top of the triangle, with no
> evidence
> to sway it towards either side. i.e. more or less likely to be true.

Hey, I like that a lot, I'll start fiddling around with the idea with
pen and paper. Ileft the whole quote hoping to get ideas from others
that worka s well as I think you suggestion will. Thanks